Abstract
Monsoon depressions tracks have a great impact on success and failure rate of summer monsoon precipitation in Pakistan. In this study, different tracks of monsoon depressions are represented. GIS technology is used to prepare maps of monsoon depression tracks. Correlation has been found between the presence of monsoon depression and rainfall amount. Years of highest rainfall and lowest rainfall are selected and nature of LPSs is observed during these years. Different causes behind direction change of monsoon depression and all those factors that are responsible to change Monsoon depression track in India and Pakistan are discussed in this study.Another aim of this study is to analyze temperature and rainfall trends in between era of 1960 to 2010 of Bahawalpur District and 1950 to 2010 of Multan District through regression analysis. Graphs are plotted to diagnose the trends of both variables in both Districts. Through the regression analysis change in rainfall and temperature is determined. Analysis depicts a clear change in rainfall and temperature trends. As it is good for natural water table as well its climate due to its closeness to Cholistan Desert.
Climate changes
Experts have warned us about the day that climate change is happening. The heat is increasing.
Our seeds will not be able to withstand this increasing heat and heat wave. Pollination process will be affected.
There will be no grain in the ears of rice and wheat and other crops.
Unfortunately, this process has started in the paddy crop. The crop is ready but the seeds are not formed. Farmers are killed. But somewhere the farmers are also guilty because the crop should be sown according to the season. Agiti suffered losses in the cycles of harvesting.
Global Warming. Climate change. Flood Inflation is spreading havoc all together.
We have to make new seeds to avoid famine. New methods have to be discovered. Fertilizers should be used in a balanced way. Crops should be sown keeping in mind the weather conditions. Otherwise, there will be a huge food crisis.
Pakistan is on the hit list of climate change. So light the candle of your part. Plant trees. Protect crop residues from fire. Increase soil organic matter and make agriculture successful.
Stay connected, keep hope from the tree.
Conclusion
This study is helpful full for to detect the change in rainfall in future specially in agriculture sector and hydrology field. Determine change in underground water and soil fertility as well as disaster risk management.
There are total four tracks of monsoon depressions. Every year monsoon depression follow these tracks with a little change. Fourth track which is South Punjab North Sindh and Western Pakistan track is responsible for climate change in Southern Punjab regions (Districts of Bahawalpur and Multan).
It is also found that in the presence of monsoon depression more rainfall is experienced in study area. Droughts are experienced when no track passed away or it passed from very far in study area. Like in 1973 monsoon d671.1mm rain was recorded in district Bahawalpur and depression passed exactly above Bahawalnagar (in the North of Bahawalpur), and had sewer impact upon this district. The track of 1939 no rain was recorded in Bahawalpur District and track was not entered in Pakistan and disseminate near Jhansi in India. The track of 1939 was even did not enter in Pakistan and
disseminate near Jhansi in India. Same case is with District Multan. In 1992 district Multan received highest amount of rain which is 513 mm. This was because of having monsoon low pressure system exactly above in this year and minimum rain was recorded in 1952 which is 99 mm and track in this year was not passed from Multan but it passed from Lahore, Sahiwal and
surrounding regions.
But there are some cases when droughts are experienced besides having monsoon depression in surrounding regions. It is because the monsoon depressions are always spread on vast area and these are dry from its centre. It cause central areas left dry and surrounding areas experience rainfall. Like in District Bahawalpur in 1937 monsoon track was exactly above Bahawalpur but there was no precipitation recorded in this year and in 1968 rainfall was not received by in Bahawalpur but in Multan 125.2 mm.
There are slight temporal variability is found in rainfall and average, minimum and maximum temperatures.
Trends are showing positive change in rain fall in study area. Now in District Bahawalpur 1.1227 mm rainfall is increased in normal amount of rainfall. Similarly in district Multan 1.12mm rainfall is increased in normal amount of rainfall.
In Bahawalpur District there is decrease in average temperature and mean maximum temperatures. While minimum temperature is slightly increase. The maximum change is about -0.0055° Celsius and minimum change is about 0.011° Celsius While mean
minimum temperature is increasing..
In Multan District average temperature is increased about 0.0049° Celsius minimum
temperature is increased about 0.209° Celsius and maximum temperature is decreased
about-0.0011° Celsius.